The World Cup has finally kicked off last Thursday and I have seen some fantastic games already. Perhaps the Netherlands appears to be the strongest side so far, following their 5-1 victory over Spain.
To me the question is not only which country will win the World Cup, but also which prediction model will come closest to the actual results. Here I present three teams, FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregation website, Groll & Schauberger, two academics from Munich and finally Lloyd’s of London, the insurance market.
I noticed that the monthly number of posts on R-bloggers stopped increasing over the last year. Indeed, the last couple of months saw a decline in posts compared to the previous year. Thus, has most been said and written about R already? Who knows? Well, I took a stab at looking into the future. However, I can tell you already that I am not convinced by my predictions. But maybe someone else will be inspired to take this work forward.
Despite the hot weather and the beginning of the school holiday season in North Rhine Westphalia the Cologne R user group met yet again for two fascinating talks and beer and schnitzel afterwards.
Analysing Twitter data to evaluate the US Dollar / Euro exchange rates Dietmar Janetzko presented ideas to forecast US Dollar / Euro exchange rate movements for the following day. To forecast exchange rate movements, Dietmar distinguishes two school of thoughts.