Visualising the predictive distribution of a log-transformed linear model
Today I will take a closer look at the log-transformed linear model and use Stan/rstan, not only to model the sales statistics, but also to generate samples from the posterior predictive distribution.
The posterior predictive distribution is what I am most interested in. From the simulations I can get the 95% prediction interval, which will be slightly wider than the theoretical 95% interval, as it takes into account the parameter uncertainty as well.
Ok, first I take my log-transformed linear model of my earlier post and turn it into a Stan model, including a section to generate output from the posterior predictive distribution.
After I have complied and run the model, I can extract the simulations and calculate various summary statistics. Furthermore, I use my parameters also to predict the median and mean, so that I can compare them against the sample statistics. Note again, that for the mean calculation of the log-normal distribution I have to take into account the variance as well.
|Posterior predictive distributions|
R version 3.2.2 (2015-08-14) Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin13.4.0 (64-bit) Running under: OS X 10.10.5 (Yosemite) locale:  en_GB.UTF-8/en_GB.UTF-8/en_GB.UTF-8/C/en_GB.UTF-8/en_GB.UTF-8 attached base packages:  stats graphics grDevices utils datasets  methods base other attached packages:  rstan_2.7.0-1 inline_0.3.14 Rcpp_0.12.0 loaded via a namespace (and not attached):  tools_3.2.2 codetools_0.2-14 stats4_3.2.2