Communicating Risk and Uncertainty

David Spiegelhalter gave a fascinating talk on Communicating Risk and Uncertainty to the Public & Policymakers at the Grantham Institute of the Imperial College in London last Tuesday. In a very engaging way David gave many examples and anecdotes from his career in academia and advisory. I believe his talk will be published on the Grantham Institute’s YouTuble channel, so I will only share a few highlights and thoughts that stuck in my mind here.

Why models need a certain culture to flourish

About half a year ago Ian Branagan, Chief Risk Officer of Renaissance Re - a Bermudian reinsurance company with a focus on property catastrophe insurance, gave a talk about the usage of models in risk management and how they evolved over the last twenty years. Ian’s presentation, titled with the famous quote of George E.P. Box: “All models are wrong, but some are useful”, was part of the lunch time lecture series of talks at Lloyd’s, organised by the Insurance Institute of London.

Reserving based on log-incremental payments in R, part III

This is the third post about Christofides’ paper on Regression models based on log-incremental payments [1]. The first post covered the fundamentals of Christofides’ reserving model in sections A - F, the second focused on a more realistic example and model reduction of sections G - K. Today’s post will wrap up the paper with sections L - M and discuss data normalisation and claims inflation. I will use the same triangle of incremental claims data as introduced in my previous post.

Reserving based on log-incremental payments in R, part II

Following on from last week’s post I will continue to go through the paper Regression models based on log-incremental payments by Stavros Christofides [1]. In the previous post I introduced the model from the first 15 pages up to section F. Today I will progress with sections G to K which illustrate the model with a more realistic incremental claims payments triangle from a UK Motor Non-Comprehensive account:# Page D5.17

Reserving based on log-incremental payments in R, part I

A recent post on the PirateGrunt blog on claims reserving inspired me to look into the paper Regression models based on log-incremental payments by Stavros Christofides [1], published as part of the Claims Reserving Manual (Version 2) of the Institute of Actuaries. The paper is available together with a spread sheet model, illustrating the calculations. It is very much based on ideas by Barnett and Zehnwirth, see [2] for a reference.

Reshaping the IT world

During my university time I worked on the IT help desk for a while. One day I received a call from a professor, who said that his printer had stopped working. So I asked him, if there was a message on the display and if he could read it to me. “Oh yes”, he said, “it says: ‘Load A4 paper.’” Rachel King quotes a study by Cisco on ZDnet, which believes to have found out that college students and young employees under the age of 30 would rather take a lower salary than having no social media freedom, device flexibility and work mobility.